Here is a hand that comes to me from a good friend, Thanks Ferd.
Late stages of SNG, down to the bubble.
In this hand, the 4 players are:
Button - 2200 chips, started being very aggro, going all-in on the button several times recently
SB - HERO, with 2100 chips
BB - been passive, down to 875 chips
UTG - has played pretty ABC poker, knocked out 2 players in one massive hand to get up to 10,000 chips.
Blinds are 100/200
UTG folds, Button goes all-in. You have AQ offsuit.
After posting BB, the BB has only 675 left, and might be priced in.
Do you call, figuring you are ahead of button's range, and have a good chance to move into a solid 2nd place position but risk busting out on the bubble; or fold, figuring there is a good chance the BB will be eliminated on this hand, or relatively soon, and then you can take your chances after securing the money?
Would it make a difference if you had the button covered by a small amount?
Would it make a difference if 1st place didn't have such a huge lead, so that a double up would put you in the lead?
My thoughts on the hand, I think its an insta-call, you are way ahead of the Buttons shoving range. Being on the bubble has very little affect on me in this situation, I want a chance to win this thing, and folding and letting the Button steal or even knock out the BB puts you in 3rd place a little cash but not in a good spot to win, by calling here you will probably have a 70-30 to double up and maybe even knock out the BB while you are at it... I think its a call every time.
The best thing I've ever read when it comes to sit 'n go advice was, the most important thing to do is cash. That first spot where you cash is the most important cashing spot because it's the biggest pay jump. You from zero all the way to some profit.
ReplyDeleteNow I agree, it's a no brained that you are way ahead of this guys shoving range but with the BB having so little chips you are almost a lock to cash if you play wisely. I the BB get knocked out in the next few orbits which he likely will, you are certain to cash.
Also you have to take into account what you are playing for. I'm looking at this from the online pro prospective. If you are playing a decently high level sng in this case and this is how you make you money, it's different than how you play a $5 sng before you are about to go to sleep.
If everyone were even stacked and you all had 10 or 12 BBs then yea that's a great spot. But not with a guy that has 3 BBs left after he likely folds to that all-in.
And I don't think it makes much difference if you had him slightly covered or if first was so far ahead. But since the chip leader does have so many chips it helps my case, since it makes just cashing even more of what you are really shoring for because winning is that much harder.