This hand came up in a 5K NAPT event, and even though it seams pretty clear cut I wonder at what point do we fold the AK and keep searching for better spots. Jason had 4.745M in chips and was in second place at the final table with 7 people left. Blinds were 30k - 60k (dont remember the ante but probably around 10k)
Jason Mercier was in middle position and min raised to 120K 2 people called after him and then the BB Joe Tehan 3-bet to 515K. (Tehan is the Chip Leader). After this JM 4-bet to 1.1M the 2 callers folded and Joe Tehan announced all in! Remember he has JM covered. After a statement of "WOW" JM called for his remaining 3.645M chips and they turned over their hands.
JM - AsKd
JT - JsJc
Wow is right a huge coin flip and JM misses everything and busts out 7th.
Should JM have folded to JT all in? He still had 3.645M chips which would have been like 3rd place in chips. There were some short stacks at the table still. I know it feels like an insta-call but given the situation I think he should have folded, what do you think? I know in the new world where we see the 6-bet all in with A7 3 handed at the WSOP main event, it seams crazy to fold AK here but should he have folded? I think so. Comment and let me know your thoughts.
—Jorge Araujo
Hmmmm. I think he should fold, because of the situation.... 7 left in NAPT final just to flame out on a coin flip??? But i also think after he sticks 1.1m into the pot, he kind of has to be ready to call an all in bet... Tough spot, im not even sure what i would have done preflop... HmmMmm
ReplyDelete-Robert R
On the Deuces Play podcast there was a tournament pro who said he regularely looks for better spots to stick his stack in than with Ace high. he much prefers to play post-flop than flip for his tournament life, especially with plenty of BB's left and some shorter stacks around. He even mentioned folding AA a few times when there are 3 shoves in front of him and someone has him covered. i know everybody thinks that AA is never a fold, but he has done it and is a successful tournament player.
ReplyDeleteIn a vacuum maybe it's a fold, but there is a lot that we don't see here. How active was Jason (likely very active), and how often was Tehan 3 betting, and more specifically 3 betting Jason? Take it a step further and how often was Jason putting in the 4bet? Had he 4 bet folded at all yet?
ReplyDeleteI don't know the answers to those.
What should surprise us all is that Jason lost a flip in a key spot :)
Looking at Jason's raise sizes it looks like he was trying to get worse to induce. The 4 bet is pretty small and it wasn't to give himself room to fold, it was to get AQs to shove. I also wonder how many other spots they got into where Jason 4 bet with worse then AK in a similar spot, if he had done it 1 or more times then Jason may be thinking that AK is at the top of his range and Tehan might be looking at a spot to pick up chips with less then a hand like JJ.
Anyway I think it's a fun spot, and not sure of the correct answer. I bet Jason had his reasons for putting it in there and it's hard to argue with a guy that has been in that spot many times before with better results.
It's likely that Jason isn't looking to move up the pay ladder at that point, he wants to win and 4 bet folding AK is probably not in his thoughts as a way to win the whole thing.
Good post, thanks Jorge!
-Ron
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ReplyDeleteI think its a call every single time in that stage of the tournament, where no one is willing to give up any edge preflop. It is a tough final table and the game will be eventually decided on these preflop flips. As Ron pointed out, the smallish 4 bet is to induce a shove from a weaker hand. If not, he is ready to be in a race situation. The pot was quite big and he is getting great price to be in a race. You have to win the crucial race when 4-5 handed to win the tournament. If Jason wins that race, he is a huge favorite to win the tournament.
ReplyDeleteI believe Joe Tehan's plays a push fold kind of game where he 3 bets a lot and then folds to 4 bets if he has worse hands in that spots.
Later on in the night, in an interesting hand Tehan raises with AJo, villain 3 bets and Tehan 4 bets jams and villain calls and has TT. Tehan spikes an Ace on the turn and wins. I'm not aware of the villain's stack size in that hand, but it would be interesting to see if he had enough chips in that spot to be 3 bet folding a hand like AQs, and whether that would be a correct play? Also a good question would be to what did Tehan think his AJo shove is accomplishing there. Does he think he can get a certain range of villain to fold? Does he think that villains range is coin flipping against his and he is going to put the villain to the test? I'm going to put some more analysis after I get those hand results.