Sit & Go Bubble Play!

Here is a hand that comes to me from a good friend, Thanks Ferd.


Late stages of SNG, down to the bubble.

In this hand, the 4 players are:

Button - 2200 chips, started being very aggro, going all-in on the button several times recently
SB - HERO, with 2100 chips
BB - been passive, down to 875 chips
UTG - has played pretty ABC poker, knocked out 2 players in one massive hand to get up to 10,000 chips.

Blinds are 100/200

UTG folds, Button goes all-in. You have AQ offsuit.

After posting BB, the BB has only 675 left, and might be priced in.

Do you call, figuring you are ahead of button's range, and have a good chance to move into a solid 2nd place position but risk busting out on the bubble; or fold, figuring there is a good chance the BB will be eliminated on this hand, or relatively soon, and then you can take your chances after securing the money?

Would it make a difference if you had the button covered by a small amount?

Would it make a difference if 1st place didn't have such a huge lead, so that a double up would put you in the lead?


My thoughts on the hand, I think its an insta-call, you are way ahead of the Buttons shoving range. Being on the bubble has very little affect on me in this situation, I want a chance to win this thing, and folding  and letting the Button steal or even knock out the BB puts you in 3rd place a little cash but not in a good spot to win, by calling here you will probably have a 70-30 to double up and maybe even knock out the BB while you are at it... I think its a call every time.

Can we ever fold the Huge Coin Flips late in a tourney?

This hand came up in a 5K NAPT event, and even though it seams pretty clear cut I wonder at what point do we fold the AK and keep searching for better spots. Jason had 4.745M in chips and was in second place at the final table with 7 people left. Blinds were 30k - 60k (dont remember the ante but probably around 10k)

Jason Mercier was in middle position and min raised to 120K 2 people called after him and then the BB Joe Tehan 3-bet to 515K. (Tehan is the Chip Leader). After this JM 4-bet to 1.1M the 2 callers folded and Joe Tehan announced all in! Remember he has JM covered. After a statement of "WOW" JM called for his remaining 3.645M chips and they turned over their hands.

JM  -  AsKd
JT  -  JsJc

Wow is right a huge coin flip and JM misses everything and busts out 7th.

Should JM have folded to JT all in? He still had 3.645M chips which would have been like 3rd place in chips. There were some short stacks at the table still. I know it feels like an insta-call but given the situation I think he should have folded, what do you think? I know in the new world where we see the 6-bet all in with A7 3 handed at the WSOP main event, it seams crazy to fold AK here but should he have folded? I think so. Comment and let me know your thoughts.

—Jorge Araujo

Does he really have Quads?

Ok guys I used to do this with friends way back in the day and I want to bring it back with people who actually study the game these days. So if you know or would like to invite more people to this Blog please do so. Basically every time somebody hits an interesting situation in a poker hand, something we can discuss and figure out what is right or how each individual would play the hand is something we can all learn from.

This hand came up and its interesting:

2-3 NLH (9 Handed) at the BIKE Hero has $550.00

UTG - Folds

+1 - Folds

+2 - Folds

+3 - Folds

+4 - Folds

Cut Off - Raises to $11 (This is our HERO he has AsJs)

Button - Folds

SB - Folds

BB - Calls (Has $780)

$25 in the POT

FLOP Ad 8s 8c

BB - Checks

HERO - Bets $15

BB - Raises to $40

HERO - Calls

$105 in the POT

TURN Ac

BB - Checks

HERO - Checks

$105 in the Pot

RIVER 3d

BB - Pushes all in for the Hero's remaining $445

1) WHAT HANDS CAN THE BB HAVE HERE?

2) WHAT SHOULD OUR HERO DO?

3) WHY?

4) WHAT ARE THE EV'S OF THE DIFFERENT PLAYS (CALL OR FOLD)?

5) WILL HE HAVE QUADS ENOUGH TIMES FOR IT TO BE A FOLD IN THIS SPOT? (remember is a live game at the Bike not online)