This hand came up and its interesting:
2-3 NLH (9 Handed) at the BIKE Hero has $550.00
UTG - Folds
+1 - Folds
+2 - Folds
+3 - Folds
+4 - Folds
Cut Off - Raises to $11 (This is our HERO he has AsJs)
Button - Folds
SB - Folds
BB - Calls (Has $780)
$25 in the POT
FLOP Ad 8s 8c
BB - Checks
HERO - Bets $15
BB - Raises to $40
HERO - Calls
$105 in the POT
TURN Ac
BB - Checks
HERO - Checks
$105 in the Pot
RIVER 3d
BB - Pushes all in for the Hero's remaining $445
1) WHAT HANDS CAN THE BB HAVE HERE?
2) WHAT SHOULD OUR HERO DO?
3) WHY?
4) WHAT ARE THE EV'S OF THE DIFFERENT PLAYS (CALL OR FOLD)?
5) WILL HE HAVE QUADS ENOUGH TIMES FOR IT TO BE A FOLD IN THIS SPOT? (remember is a live game at the Bike not online)
I call. It is highly unlikely he raised the flop with quads. I think only 2 or 3 top players in the world, plus complete beginners, would risk chasing away the bettor. The check on the turn is consistent with both of you freezing on having the second nuts. I would be shocked if the push on the river is quads or a bluff. I think all signs indicate a chop.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, the rake at the bike is so big that you are already calling to get half your money back.
ReplyDeleteIf you have no data on the player, like you just sat down 20 minutes ago, I say you can fold. You are only trying to get you $50 back here. I think he is shoving an 8 or an air-ball here about as often as he has quads. I think the EV play is to call but I don't like the spot and honestly I could see possibly laying it down here if there is some reason too, like it's a woman, or a old guy or I've seen the guy value shove at some point in a hand before.